how low can the market go?

[5711-Marine]

According to professor Shiller, the S&P can fall another 35% to 55% plus it it follows past trends.

http://www.irrationalexuberance.com/index.htm

Irrational Exuberance, Second Edition
by Robert J. Shiller

This site offers updated information relating to the book Irrational Exuberance by Robert J. Shiller.

* One can access an Excel file with the data set (used and described in the book) on stock prices, earnings, dividends and interest rates since 1871, updated.
* One can access an Excel file with the data set (used and described in the book) on home prices, building costs, population and interest rates since 1890, updated.
* The Yale School of Management produces Stock Market Confidence Indexes which reveal changing attitudes among individual and institutional investors over time.
* The definition of "irrational exuberance" has its origin in a speech Alan Greenspan gave on December 5, 1996.
* I write a monthly column "Finance in the 21st Century" for Project Syndicate, with coverage around the world, and this column contains further development of some themes in the book.
* I write a regular column "Economic View" for the New York Times.
* Richard Thaler and I have organized a number of scholarly workshops in behavioral finance that are the source of many themes in the book.
* In my 2007 presidential address for the Eastern Economic Association I compared historic turning points in real estate with the situation in today's markets.
* I teach a course at Yale University entitled Economics 527, Law 20083, Management 565, "Behavioral and Institutional Economics".
* I teach a course at Yale University entitled Economics 252: Financial Markets. A video of all the lectures in the course is available on Open Yale.
* My 2008 book Subprime Solution: How Today's Financial Crisis Happened and What to Do about It, Princeton University Press, connects some of the themes of Irrational Exuberance to the subprime crisis, and proposes policy measures to deal with the crisis.
* George Akerlof and I have written Animal Spirits: How Human Psychology Drives the Economy and Why It Matters for Global Capitalism, Princeton University Press, 2009, which describes the implications of research in behavioral economics for economic booms, crises and busts.

[OvadekP]

I don't know how low they can go...

Perhaps President Obama may know...

I think he may have to ask his teleprompter though...

[PocketProtector]

I don't know how low they can go...

Perhaps President Obama may know...

I think he may have to ask his teleprompter though...

Good point, it's doing exactly what he wants.

[OvadekP]

Good point, it's doing exactly what he wants.

I'm not so sure that this is really what he wants, at least not to this extent.
I do believe Rhambo when he says you never want to let a crisis go to waste, but, this is becoming the avalanche that can't be stopped.

I believe Obama believes the stupidity he spews while reading the teleprompter, because he has no real world experience in anything other than academics and corporate extortion for Acorn.

I also believe he has no idea what his policies will do, because they are not his, he's the straw man POTUS. His teleprompter is running the USA.

[customloaded]

Well, I see the market closed at just under 7,000 points today. Read an article that a fellow expects it to get down to 5,000 and years for it to get back up to 14,000. who knows???

[RoyJackson]

I don't know how low they can go...

Perhaps President Obama may know...

I think he may have to ask his teleprompter though...

WOW!!!!!!!!!
Poetry on PAFOA!!!!!!!!
Whoda thunk it! Rep points for you, lad!

As far as the topic...no one knows...all anyone can do is make guesses (even if those guesses are dressed up with statistics).

[RCN]

I'm personally looking for the DOW around 4,500 before the "slide" stops, but that's just me.

[Jon1911]

My estimate is that we're nowhere near bottom yet.

Some people said 10,000 was the bottom, haha.

I think the 4k estimates are probably pretty close.

[H.E. Pennypacker]

I don't know...but I am sure as hell glad I got out in December! Better late than never. I'll probably start buying back when people stop believing the end of the world is coming or Obama leaves office....whichever happens first.

[phillyd2]

Technically I guess it "can" go to ZERO.

So, now we are back to what, 1997 levels?