Interesting analysis on the Bradley Effect and the AWB Ban Renewal

[Tackdriver]

First off, I gotta say I am a native californian, and have alsways laughed when the press labelled the "bradley effect" a race issue. At the time there was a sweeping handgun ban (proposition 15) on the ballot. Bradley endorsed the ban, the other guy railed against the ban. Guess what, BRADLEY LOST. The ban got like 20% of the vote, and Bradley lost the black vote in LA - and the black vote in LA voted against prop 15 also!

In summary, the speculation here is that there will be no AWB ban at least this term because Obama knows what happened to Clinton in 1994 - Obama's chief of staff is a clintonian staffer from the same era. The democrats that are crucial to the evil left wing obamanation are the pro-gun democrats!

This link:
http://www.californiaprogressreport....er_gun_12.html



Quote:
People can forget about a new “assault weapon” ban - that one is not getting any traction – Labor is opposed and Rahm Emanuel is not putting his boss or a Democratic majority at risk. Look at the makeup of the new Congress. Some of this buying may be Obama paranoia but a lot of this is also upscale people going downscale.

Given all the paranoia about “assault weapons”, for the record, all the 1994 law did was to prohibit or restrict the making or importation into the US of various firearms and high capacity magazines. It did not affect any “pre ban” guns. The 1994 law as to imports codified a prior import restriction effectuated by President Bush 41. That law expired in 2004 though John McCain voted for an extension as part of final bill that failed and the import ban remains in effect which means that restricted weapons can only be made under a licensing agreement within the US.

The 1994 crime bill which included “the ban” passed because Republicans voted for it. Many of those Republicans are gone and because of the movement of seats because of the 2000 census and resulting redistricting, many of the Democratic seats where the members voted for it are gone as well.

In fact, the shifts in redistricting in the wake of the 2002 census have created situations where no 1994 revival could even pass the House. A number of the seats of Democrats who voted for the 1994 law have disappeared and those Republicans who voted for the 1994 law are gone as well replaced by GOP hardliners. The Karl Rove plan which I wrote about actually weakened Republicans in the Northeast and Midwest by creating large numbers of marginal seats in Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.

[Willie D]

for the record, all the 1994 law did was to prohibit or restrict the making or importation into the US of various firearms and high capacity magazines. It did not affect any “pre ban” guns. The 1994 law as to imports codified a prior import restriction effectuated by President Bush 41. That law expired in 2004 though John McCain voted for an extension as part of final bill that failed and the import ban remains in effect which means that restricted weapons can only be made under a licensing agreement within the US.

This seems well reasoned and non-incendiary so it probably will pass by uncommented.

I tried to point this out in another post.
The first "AWB" was thanks to Bush Sr., with Clinton tightening restrictions in 1994.

Here's some interesting reading:
http://www.atf.gov/pub/fire-explo_pu...4/gen_info.pdf
On page 167 you can see the rifles explicitly banned by Bush I, followed by the clones and other rifles that were banned by Clinton because of importers trying to circumvent the law.

This discusses how the Bush "Ban" was a clarification and decision to enforce a 1968 law intended largely to protect US gun manufacturers from competition:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/User:Kythri

From what I gather the 1994 ban added US made "assault rifles" and hi-cap pistols. The 1994 ban has expired but the 1968 ban still stands. (The NRA has made no movement on the 68' ban in 40 years because it is a US industry lobbying group 1st, 2nd amendment group 2nd)

[Tackdriver]

I put in the "evil left wing" as an invitation for comment and insult! Come on people!

lol

[Morel42]

I put in the "evil left wing" as an invitation for comment and insult! Come on people!

lol

Umm..

/Checks his "New Textbook for Insulting Republicans 2008 edition"

You.. Umm.. Neobum!!

Dang gotta get some new ones..

[ALS]

Based on Gun store receipts since Wednesday morning I'd say no one is going along with the premise of the AWB being a dead issue.