Accuracy of polls

**steelmover** · October 2nd, 2008, 08:01 AM

I have heard many people say the polls dont mean anything. I did a little searching around about the last two elections. The polls were basically dead on. My optimism is dying very, very fast. I really think the media is wearing people down. Like Hitler said, "Make the lie big, make it simple, keep saying it, and eventually they will believe it", and "How fortunate for governments that the people they administer don't think". Socialism is right around the corner.

http://www.ncpp.org/?q=node/20
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry.html

**Longshot** · October 2nd, 2008, 09:21 AM

I always thought Penn and Teller had a good explanation of it.
Part 2 has the part on polling and statistics.

Part 1

Part 2

Part 3

**CPratt** · October 2nd, 2008, 10:54 AM

The thing that scares me is that the same people who take the polls are the same people who vote and then watch to see how the polls come out. These are the same people who watch the news and are the same people that are influenced by the media and unfortunately a majority are liberal demos.

**rwilson452** · October 2nd, 2008, 01:33 PM

Without going into a lot of particulars the polls could be way off this election either way. They are using the same sample methods they have used in past elections and the demographics are different. Zogby has suggested this election could be a landslide victory one way or the other. Even he is not too trusting of the poll numbers.

**Ozone** · October 2nd, 2008, 06:44 PM

I don't put much stock into these Polls.

For example..On 98.1 this morning..they said Osama has a 15 point lead in Pennsylvania...lol. I'll bet my life savings that Osama doesn't even lead by 10pts in this state.

Let's just wait and see how this plays out.

**ALS** · October 2nd, 2008, 06:57 PM

I heard one pollster say Tuesday that this race is going to tighten up over the next week. Then poof McCain gains two points on Obama yesterday.
Yep they are playing with the results by weighing the numbers the way they want. I don't start believing them until about a week out. They only have to be right the night before to keep their credibility.

**larrymeyer** · October 2nd, 2008, 07:12 PM

Originally Posted by rwilson452

Without going into a lot of particulars the polls could be way off this election either way. They are using the same sample methods they have used in past elections and the demographics are different. Zogby has suggested this election could be a landslide victory one way or the other. Even he is not too trusting of the poll numbers.

I agree anyone can answer a poll. But tell us about yourself ???