The Ammo Drought Explained - please remove foil hats before reading

[afdcomposer]

A friend sent this along, and I thought it made sense.

<From American Gunsmith>
Despite claims to the contrary, the lack of ammunition on your dealer’s shelf is not a government conspiracy. Some simple math demonstrates how a slight uptick in demand can quickly exhaust available supply.

Consider .22LR ammunition. The industry as a whole (all manufacturers combined) is currently setup to produce about 4,200,000,000 (4.2 Billion) rounds of .22 LR ammunition annually. That is the current production rate of all manufacturers running all their machines at full capacity. Without taking the time and large financial risk of purchasing additional, expensive equipment, not to mention the additional needed shop space and trained personnel to run it, there is nothing these manufacturers can do to produce more.

This adds up to a maximum 11.5 million rounds of .22LR per day, which is 23,000 bricks (500 rounds) of .22LR production per day.

There are 80 million gun owners in the States, a figure widely reported by and agreed upon by multiple sources. If 0.03 percent of them (24,000 people) decide to each buy one brick of .22 on any given day, that is a demand for 24,000 bricks, exceeding the entire maximum U.S. production of .22LR by 1,000 bricks on that day.

If 0.5 percent of the American gun owning public (400,000 people) simultaneously decides they each want to buy two bricks of .22LR, the entire maximum U.S. production of .22LR is immediately backlogged for five weeks. Any additional demand has to be supplied by currently available stocks from dealers, distributors or elsewhere. When those stocked items are exhausted, dealer shelves go bare.

Lesson learned. Ammunition retains (and possibly increases) value, stores easily, keeps for a long time. When it’s available, buy it cheap and stack it deep. Waiting until you need some, only to find the shelves bare, is never a good idea.

_________
I still want to get reloading equipment, in the hope that these ammo droughts will have less effect on me. However that is going to be long in the future.

Oh, well.

[scruff]

That's what I've assumed all along, but those numbers really drive it home. The Newtown shooting was in mid-December, and AR's and .223/5.56 ammo disappeared from the shelves almost immediately. Initially, .223/5.56 may have run short from all the new AR owners buying ammo to go with their new guns. As it started disappearing, everyone started to panic, and the panic spread to pistol-caliber ammo a couple of weeks later. Now, millions of people want to keep more on hand than they used to, so it will take a while to come back.

Ammo manufacturers aren't the only companies that can't quickly and easily ramp up production. It's scary to think about what an uptick in demand would do to other areas like food.

[afdcomposer]

That's what I've assumed all along, but those numbers really drive it home. The Newtown shooting was in mid-December, and AR's and .223/5.56 ammo disappeared from the shelves almost immediately. Initially, .223/5.56 may have run short from all the new AR owners buying ammo to go with their new guns. As it started disappearing, everyone started to panic, and the panic spread to pistol-caliber ammo a couple of weeks later. Now, millions of people want to keep more on hand than they used to, so it will take a while to come back.

Ammo manufacturers aren't the only companies that can't quickly and easily ramp up production. It's scary to think about what an uptick in demand would do to other areas like food.

Yeah, it's like ripples in a pond, or a snowball, or something.

"It will take a while to come back."

That's like saying Hitler didn't attend many Bar Mitzvahs.

[762xIan]

I noticed the article myself in the latest issue and was thinking of commenting on it myself.

I hope the manufacturers do decide (if they haven't already) to increase production lines and capacity.

The problem is, even in normal industry applications, specialty machines and equipment can have very long lead times, then set-up, and commisioning of the new equipment.

My explanation:

1. Ammo company "A" saw the huge increase in firearm sales and ammo purchases back during Decembers panic and shrugged it off as temporary.

2. Say by February, realization sinks in....all the new shooters want ammo, the ammo company is not keeping up with orders. Ammo shortage.

3. March.....Meetings are held, decision is made to increase production (buy more machines).

4. April...Engineering and cost analysis done, Ammo Co. "A" can utilize existing site and power requirements to increase prodution, if NOT then other plant upgrades are required increasing cost.

5. May...Raise the necessary capitol.

6. June....Place the order for new machinery.

7. 2014???......based on lead times in my experience with specialty "one of a kind" machines, who knows how long it would take to receive a new machine, install it, and have it up and running.

Just my .02, based on industrial and manufacturing experience.

[Solaran_X]

Everything is looking much better now. I was at Gander Mountain this past Friday when I out ordering my birthday present to myself. Their shelves were full and prices weren't terrible. They had all the common stuff - .223 Remington, 5.56x45MM NATO, 7.62x39MM, .22LR, .45 ACP, .40 S&W and 9x19MM. A nice variety of FMJ and JHP rounds, including the big ass bulk yellow Remington/UMCs for .45 ACP, .40 S&W, 9x19MM and .223 Remington.

I was even able to pick up six boxes of 9MM NATO this weekend.

[wanneroo]

A staggering number of guns have been sold over the past few years and they have to be fed with ammo.

There is a guy I worked with a few times that him and his father invested in building a big gun store and range and they've done well, making millions. They were already a rich family, but this isn't a bad business to be in. Probably one of the few legitimate business sectors that has grown in this depression.

In addition I notice with everyone that in order to buffer any further dry ups in supply, people have stocked up. Rather than expecting that Wal Mart will just have whatever they want on the day, they are buying up in bulk.

[father-of-five]

The new Dunkelbergers in Brodheadsville was stocked with many calibers. However, they were more expensive than places that I thought were already on the high side of ammo prices.

[bogey1]

I was talking to a man in maryland the other day and he was telling me he had lunch with their female senator (cant remember her name). He asked why walmart doesnt have any 22 ammo, or any other normal caliber ammo for that matter.? Her answer was, the government is buying it. He said for what? To use it against you. Its for civil unrest.

I'm just passing on what he told me.

[Curmudgeon]

I was talking to a man in maryland the other day and he was telling me he had lunch with their female senator (cant remember her name). He asked why walmart doesnt have any 22 ammo, or any other normal caliber ammo for that matter.? Her answer was, the government is buying it. He said for what? To use it against you. Its for civil unrest.

I'm just passing on what he told me.

I can't speak to Maryland's state Senators, but Barbara Mikulski is Maryland's only female US Senator. In addition to a long anti-gun/anti-2A history I would put her right along with Pelosi/Feinstein/Biden et al intellectually.

As ridiculous as the statement sounds I can believe it would come from her. And in Maryland she could rightfully expect applause and to be hailed as a hero for saying it. At least among the bulk of the voting public down there.

There are good folks in Maryland, but I fear they are hopelessly outnumbered.

[JAKIII]

Suits in board rooms are smart when it comes to capital expenditures for additional production equipment and resources to run them; however, even I know they should be running their shifts 24 x 7. I assume they are.