Murder by Numbers: Today's murder rate is essentially at a low of the past century

[ShooterInPA1]

Listening to the latest media chatter, one could get the impression that murder in the US is historically bad and getting worse. As the Reverend Al Sharpton put it, "The time for their talk is over. Now's the time for action, and real change on gun control."

Actually, now would seem to be a very bad time for such action. The reason is simple: the murder rate is historically low and is already trending downward. In fact, the murder rate in 2011 was the lowest since 1961: 4.7 murders per 100,000 people. In only 5 years since 1910 has it been lower: 1955-59, when it was only slightly lower at 4.5 or 4.6.



Data source: The Federal Bureau of Investigation. For years 1900-1991: http://bjs.ojp.usdoj.gov/content/gla...es/hmrttab.cfm. For years 1992-2011: http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr...tables/table-1

Today's murder rate is essentially at a low point of the past century. The murder rate in 2011 was lower than it was in 1911.

And the trend is downward. Whatever we've been doing over the last 20-30 years seems to be working, more or less. The murder rate has been cut by more than half since 1980: from 10.7 to 4.7.

We can only speculate on what might be behind this trend, but I will point out a few interesting facts.


http://www.americanthinker.com/2012/...est_media.html

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For those on Facebook or other social media, please spread this (the truth!) to counter the lies of the antis.

[libra8]

That right there is some good information. How could the anti's ignore this?

[wallyone]

One problem is the media will print anything with out any source quoted.
Data that can be backed up by F.B.I. D.O.J and C.D.C. as fact is looked at as "your opinion" yet they will make up "facts" as they go and then say they don't have to prove it.

[imperialism2024]

Don't let the facts get in the way of a good, juicy story

[Hawk]

There is an argument that the decreased homicide rate is due to a better chance of survival today due to modern medical support and technology.
Kind of hard to dispel that possibility.

[Kabloosh]

One thing I notice is there is spikes where they end up regulating things more such as drugs, guns, and other stuff. There seems to be a massive drop up till around early 2000s and a small spike and a steady drop again.
I would say maybe the assault weapons ban did cause a decrease in murders. Of course since its still going down I would argue that the assault weapons ban is irrelevant anyways.

[ShooterInPA1]

There is an argument that the decreased homicide rate is due to a better chance of survival today due to modern medical support and technology.
Kind of hard to dispel that possibility.

If that was the case we would see fewer auto deaths......but we don't.

[donm]

If that was the case we would see fewer auto deaths......but we don't.

Really? Check your numbers. Auto deaths in the U.S. (both by population and by miles traveled) have been dropping dramatically for decades.

[Ranger P229]

There is an argument that the decreased homicide rate is due to a better chance of survival today due to modern medical support and technology.
Kind of hard to dispel that possibility.

Check the trend in the crime, not just fatality. If better emergency care is the determining factor then you should see attempted murder and aggravated assault crimes occurring at a steady, or increasing, rate while the number of homicides decreases. If the frequency of weapon and firearms related crimes is also dropping, then it's certainly a safe assumption that the Downward trend is not just due to better medical care.

Maybe someone with Internet access other than their phone would like to check trends in aggravated assault, attempted murder, etc. I understand different states have slightly different terms for essentially the same crime, so a stat for crimes committed with a weapon would be best. Gun crime would obviously be a subset of that, but a trend in crime with a weapon used should give us a general sense of things.

[Hawk]

If that was the case we would see fewer auto deaths......but we don't.

That correlation holds no value.

However, just as a FYI, there has been a steady significant decrease in auto fatalities almost every year since the early 70's (a total of a 250% decrease comparing 1970 to 2011).


The problem is that you need to be able to separate out which of these decreases have been due to the safety features of the newer vehicles and which are due to better medicine.

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