Unemployment hits 26 year high

[velkly]

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/une...-97-2009-09-04

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The U.S. unemployment rate jumped to a 26-year high of 9.7% in August as nonfarm payrolls fell by 216,000, the 20th consecutive monthly decline, the Labor Department estimated Friday.

U.S. payrolls have dropped by 6.9 million to a total of 131.2 million since the recession began in December 2007, the government data showed. Unemployment has increased by 7.4 million during the recession to stand at 14.9 million.

"Joblessness continues to mount, which will only make it harder for households to repay debt and build savings, thereby impeding a consumer-led recovery," wrote Sal Guatieri, senior economist for BMO Capital Markets.

The 216,000 decline in payrolls was close to market expectations of a 233,000 drop, but the unemployment rate rose higher than the 9.5% level expected. The unemployment rate was 9.4% in July. See Economic Calendar.

It was the smallest decline in payrolls since August 2008.

Payrolls declined an upwardly revised 276,000 in July. In June and July, payroll losses were revised up by 49,000. Read the full government report.

Payroll losses have moderated in most industries in the past two months after severe declines earlier in the year. In the past three months, payroll losses have averaged 318,000 per month, compared with 491,000 in the previous three-month period.

Although payroll losses have moderated, the loss rate in the past three months is as bad as it was at the worst of the 1980 and 1982 recessions, said Charles Dumas, an economist for Lombard Street Research. "You have to have faith to think that job losses at the worst rate of 1980 and 1982 are consistent with level to growing GDP," Dumas said.

Economist Robert Brusca said the trend is favorable, adding that he couldn't understand the pessimism of so many observers. "I feel like a parent locked in a car with a little kid screaming " DADDY! ARE WE THERE YET?"

Many economists think the unemployment rate will top out near 10%, late this year or early next year. "What really matters is when payrolls and the jobless rate will turn, and we still believe that the timeframe on both is soon, probably sooner than most other forecasters expect," wrote Stephen Stanley, chief economist for RBS Securities.

Details of the August report were generally weak, however.

Payrolls fell in most sectors of the economy except for health care. Total hours worked in the economy dropped by 0.3%, long-term unemployment worsened, and the number of people working just part time who wanted full-time work reached 9.1 million, up 278,000.

The number of people who've been out of work longer than six months nudged up to 5 million, representing about one-third of the unemployed.

An alternative measure of unemployment that includes discouraged workers and those forced to resort to part-time work rose to 16.8% from 16.3%, marking the highest on record dating back to 1995.

Average hourly earnings on the month rose 6 cents, or 0.3%, to $18.65 an hour. In the past year, average hourly earnings are up 2.6%.

Don't worry... Biden: Stimulus Working Better Than Expected

[Bug44]

You can chalk me up on the Jobless list

[stephpd]

I just love how they come up with these numbers. Weekly new unemployment claims have been over 500,000 for the whole year but when I add up 500,000 times 4 I get 2 million, yet they get only 216,000. Ah, the new math!

And with a population of 300 million I find that 131 million close to 33% of the population has been unemployed in the last 2 years. Figure that kids and really old seniors aren't part of the latter number and it looks even worse.It would be closer to 1/2 the population that's been laid off in the last two years.

Not sure how they figure average hourly earnings, but most folks have been taking a pay cut vs getting laid off.

And the stock market rejoice, up 80 points!.

[H.E. Pennypacker]

So glad we passed that shovel-ready stimulus package.

I just love how they come up with these numbers. Weekly new unemployment claims have been over 500,000 for the whole year but when I add up 500,000 times 4 I get 2 million, yet they get only 216,000. Ah, the new math!

Huh?

[stephpd]

So glad we passed that shovel-ready stimulus package.



Huh?

http://workforcesecurity.doleta.gov/...laims_arch.asp

Office of Workforce Security
Weekly Claims

In the week ending Aug. 29, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 570,000, a decrease of 4,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 574,000. The 4-week moving average was 571,250, an increase of 4,000 from the previous week's revised average of 567,250.



================================================== ================================================== ==========
Over 500,000 new claims for unemployment ever week for most of this year. 4 weeks in a month equals over 2 million new claims every month.

http://www.workforcesecurity.doleta....loy/claims.asp

Click on the first one and put in 2007 or 2008. Look at the seasonally adjusted rate (SA) for this year. Well over 500,000 for each week.

[velkly]

We're not supposed to think; just drink the juice and shake our heads in the affirmative.

[CarolinaGuy]

You can chalk me up on the Jobless list

Going on 7 months here.

[d90king]

Sadly I have had to add to the number for the short term as I had to layoff 6 employees.. I am trying to avoid laying myself off at this point.

Keep your heads up guys it will turn, hopefully it will be soon!

[DaveM55]

Been on unemployment since Nov 2008.

I now have two part-time security jobs. So my hours are absolutely crazy and I'm pretty much on call 27/7.

On the good side, I've gotten another 48 hours of free firearms training.

[Morel42]

Honestly, once consumer confidence increases you'll see more job openings. It really boils down to that at least in the short term. If people feel safe to spend, then businesses start hiring again.

Usually why I scream at the TV when they start ranting on about how we're all going to die in an economic armageddon. The very act of making people scared shitless helps bring about economic instability..

Overy simplified concept I know. However it's basically true.