Obama Needs to Sell Himself, Not Attack McCain

[5711-Marine]

Obama Needs to Sell Himself, Not Attack McCain
By KARL ROVE


Be careful not to assign too much scientific precision to polls. They aren't as accurate as portrayed. But several different surveys at roughly the same time that show similar results are useful guides. So three trends in recent polls must worry Sen. Barack Obama and encourage Sen. John McCain.

First, an average of seven national polls the week before the Democratic convention showed Mr. Obama leading Mr. McCain by two points. By the middle of the next week, Mr. Obama's lead had climbed to almost eight points. Now, nearly two weeks later, Mr. McCain has a lead of roughly two points. Since the middle of the GOP convention, one out of every 10 voters has changed their preference -- a significant movement this late in the campaign.

That movement comes, in part, from gains Mr. McCain has made on personal leadership attributes. In the latest Washington Post/ABC poll, for example, he lengthened his lead on the question of who would be a better commander in chief (he's now ahead by 45 points). He is also seen as the stronger leader, and as the more honest and trustworthy candidate. Meanwhile, Mr. Obama saw his lead on who would "bring needed change" drop by 20 points.

The same survey found that 48% of Americans consider Mr. Obama unqualified for the presidency, virtually unchanged from 46% in March and June. When Fox News asked voters whom they would ask for advice for the toughest decision in their life, voters favored Mr. McCain by a 50% to 34% margin.

There is a similar pattern on issues. Both the Fox News and Washington Post/ABC polls showed Mr. McCain's advantages grew on terror, Iraq and an "unexpected major crisis," while he erased Mr. Obama's edge on energy, and cut the Democrat's lead on both the economy and the deficit to acceptable levels.

Perhaps most surprising of all, five recent national polls have shown a significant tightening in party identification, eroding a big lead Democrats have enjoyed since 2006.

How durable are these changes? We don't know. But opinions solidify as an election approaches, and this one is now only 47 days away.

There are a number of reasons for these changes. The Democrats had a less successful convention. Sen. Joe Biden doesn't reinforce, but instead conflicts with, Mr. Obama's change message. And the Republicans had a good convention and a great introduction of Gov. Sarah Palin as Mr. McCain's running mate. She has a rare visceral connection with both swing and base voters.

It's also possible that the do-nothing Congress is dragging down the Democrats' brand.

Events have intruded, often to Mr. McCain's benefit. He turned rising oil prices to his advantage by embracing offshore drilling. Russia's invasion of Georgia highlighted Mr. McCain's foreign policy credentials (and may have compelled Mr. Obama to add Mr. Biden, the Senate Foreign Relations Committee chairman, to his ticket).

The idealism and discipline that led to Mr. Obama's early primary victories has been replaced by unattractive attacks on Mr. McCain. Both campaigns have engaged in a tit-for-tat, but because Mr. Obama ran on "turning the page" on "old politics," he suffers more than Mr. McCain, especially since his attacks are more fundamentally unfair.

It is a mistake for Mr. Obama to spend a lot of time attacking Mr. McCain. In the past week, he, his surrogates or his ads have mocked Mr. McCain's inability to use a keyboard (an activity, like combing his hair or tying his tie, that Mr. McCain has difficulty with because of war wounds), claimed his administration would be riddled with lobbyists, tried to make an issue of his age and successful cancer treatment, missed no chance to suggest he'd be President George W. Bush's third term, and called him "dishonorable." This last charge is particularly foolish. It's one of the last things voters will believe about John McCain.

The people who can be won over by shouting "McCain is Bush" long ago sided with Mr. Obama. That message does not resonate with undecided voters. The Democrat should instead spend every moment spelling out what he would do to address the country's challenges.

This election is not fundamentally about Mr. McCain. It is much more about people's persistent doubts concerning Mr. Obama. The only way to reassure them is to provide a compelling, forward-looking agenda. That sounds obvious, but the Obama campaign seems to be betting on making Mr. McCain an unacceptable choice by striking at his character. Mr. McCain has absorbed many harder blows than anything the Obama campaign can throw his way.

In a revealing slip in an interview with ABC recently, Mr. Obama said, "If we're going to ask questions about who has been promulgating negative ads that are completely unrelated to the issues at hand, I think I win that contest pretty handily." That he is in fact winning the contest for the most negative campaign could well spell his defeat.

Mr. Rove is a former senior adviser and deputy chief of staff to President George W. Bush.

[Pector55]

I was reading yesterday about something that concerns the Dems. I have never heard of this before but apparently there is some sort of belief that Obama needs to be up 5-8pts heading into the election to have a chance. The reason being (as claimed by these Dems) is that voters may poll in favor of Obama but when they close the curtain, some may refuse to vote for him based on skin color. This "Effect" (I forget the name) is based off of some governor who was up by double digits in the polls, only to lose an election in California. I'm not sure of the validity or if it.

[Captain Tuttle]

This "Effect" (I forget the name) is based off of some governor who was up by double digits in the polls, only to lose an election in California.

Bradley effect?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bradley_effect

[Pector55]

Bradley effect?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bradley_effect

Yeah, that's the one. I'm not so sure I buy into it though. Maybe 10 - 15 yrs ago but I don't see it happening today.

[adymond]

Yeah, that's the one. I'm not so sure I buy into it though. Maybe 10 - 15 yrs ago but I don't see it happening today.

Oh I see it happening today, but not out of biggotry. I see it happening because if you are a Democrat and you say you don't think Obama is the right choice you are labled as a racist. It doesn't matter what you say you are labled as a biggot. It's easier to just say "Yeah I'm voting Obama" and then when you are behind the curtain you might vote your true feelings. Now if you see that the Democrats are far enough ahead in the polls that you voting another candidate won't do anything it is easier for you to vote the party line. If it is close though and you really are not comfortable with an Obama presidancy you might write in Clinton or vote Green or even vote McCain if you think he is the lesser of two evils. But if you are not going to impact the outcome (he has a commanding lead in the polls) it's easier to vote party lines.

The reverse is sort of what we are dealing with where we have a close race and people are wanting to make a statement by voting third party because they don't want to lend legitimacy to McCain.

[Pa. Patriot]

Sell himself?

I think it's obvious that there is nothing to sell, except slogans. Thus the attacks on McCain/Palin. That IS all he has.

[adymond]

Sell himself?

I think it's obvious that there is nothing to sell, except slogans. Thus the attacks on McCain/Palin. That IS all he has.

Welcome back Pa. Patriot! I think what the article is saying is he needs to get back on his message of hope and change. Nobody bothered to ask what change before, but he has been doingtoo much of the old style Chicago politics.

It drives me nuts when he says we need to change this country. I want to smack the ears off his damn head. This country is NOT what needs to be changed. It is the stupid politicians who have forgotten who they serve that needs to change.

[gwohsau]

Well it's not just slogans, it out right lies all depending on who he talks to. You can see youtube clips of him speaking to one Vets group telling him His Dad (?) served in ww2 (all the way from Kenya?) , you can look at another where he claims his uncle liberated Auschwitz..yet another where he tries to give the impression he is for the right to bear arms in spite of all his legislative attempts to ban anything from a Slingshot on up!

His real goal is to get in office ANYWAY he can and from there Do as he feels is necessary. That is why it is very important Firearms owners and Sportsman need to know where this clown really stands...How there can even Be groups Like Sportsman for Obama Baffles me?????

If you know anyone in Michigan, Ohio, Iowa or any of these other close states pull their coat tail and wake them up before the major disaster of this clown getting in office makes some happy Commies dreams come true!

[Mr_Tom]

McCain has decades of service, and decision making history. With any decision, such as saying he likes chocolate ice cream, you give fuel for people to disagree with. Obamba has very little decisions he stood on without flip-flopping, what comes to mind Infanticide, he's never wavered on that. Terms of your birth/conception define what type of American you are to him.

So having nothing to sell, then just attack the competition. We see this a lot in business. Just sad that people are slow to realize the truth, and we are now under 50 days out.

tom