Cost of allowed suppressors will rise.

[Bang]

Just some thoughts. Supply and demand drives prices up on anything. Changes in federal law making purchase of suppressors an over-the-counter possibility and doing away with $200 tax and a year of waiting will engender interest in the product on a yuge scale. The cost of available suppressors will make the price hikes of.22s look like (yawn).

Coupled with that is the marketing model of getting what the market will bear. I expect part of the $200 tax savings to be transferred to the cost of the product.

Manufacturers will take some time to fill the demand. Like the new TV model costs $1500 and a year later $495. But this will take longer.

[dkf]

The demand will go up and there probably will be shortages and prices increases on a short term basis. But eventually new manufacturers will come online, existing manufacturers will expand their operations to meet the demand and prices will likely eventually go down by a sizeable margin.

[aubie515]

I doubt the $200 stamp will disappear as it's a big income producer. If suppressor are removed from the NFA registry home built suppressor would increase, so your theory may not hold true.

I'm not one to speculate, but I would lean towards prices to fall. Suppressor are way over priced...it's a muffler fit our costing over $1,000.

ETA auto correct on kindle...I should proof read.

[TheTailhound]

The market is competitive by design. They may go up another 100 bucks or so and that's it.

In-fact, more manufacturers will come crawling out the woodwork if the Hearing Protection Act becomes law. I am going to wait all of 2017 to see what happens.

[normanvin]

I would rather pay more than send a check to uncle sam.

[bamboomaster]

Interesting observation...

One reason the tax stamp savings will be transferred is that in order to remain competitive, some manufacturers will increase their CAPX spending for larger facilities, additional equipment, and increase hiring. Additionally, consumers will want their products on the shelf - ready to buy. While this is not exactly an impulse purchase at any price-point, the facilities that don't ramp to customer demand are going to loose sales and considerable profit margins to their competitors - in both the manufacturing and retail marketplace.

I wonder if a 4473 will still be required? If it is, regulatory budgets for federal and state "approval" agencies may easily increase 30-50%.

I guess we'll see if this ever comes to pass...

[Rotorwash]

I think prices will come down as any competent machinist will be able to manufacture them. It's not like they are super special. Heck, I'm sure China will get in on it and really push it down. This is assuming they will fall into the firearm accessory bucket and not the "firearm to be registered" bucket requiring a manufacturer's license.

[jthrelf]

I think economies of scale will come into play as well. Look at Ruger's new suppressor line. A manufacturer like Ruger could (relatively) quickly ramp up production, and employ a pricing strategy that sells a ton, possibly with margins that aren't crazy high. They sell a lot of volume and still make their money...

[knight0334]

Instant demand would go up upon deregulation, and so would prices. However, prices would come back down once manufacturers ramped up production, and new manufacturers break into the market.

After 2-3 years, expect prices to be 1/2 as much as present - if not less. $400-$800 cans, which have basically no moving parts(few exceptions), will likely be in the $200-$400 range, possibly less.

[knight0334]

Interesting observation...

One reason the tax stamp savings will be transferred is that in order to remain competitive, some manufacturers will increase their CAPX spending for larger facilities, additional equipment, and increase hiring. Additionally, consumers will want their products on the shelf - ready to buy. While this is not exactly an impulse purchase at any price-point, the facilities that don't ramp to customer demand are going to loose sales and considerable profit margins to their competitors - in both the manufacturing and retail marketplace.

I wonder if a 4473 will still be required? If it is, regulatory budgets for federal and state "approval" agencies may easily increase 30-50%.

I guess we'll see if this ever comes to pass...

The one story I read somewhere said that suppressors would be shifted to the Title I category, which would require a 4473.