Maybe with some help from our LEO and Attorney membership

[Brick]

I can make some sense of theses statistics gleaned from the Pennsylvania Commission on Sentencing and Pennsylvania State Police Uniform Crime report. See my idea was to bounce one against the other to try to determine how effective our gun laws were. Everything I quote here comes from the 2007 reports and they can be found at:
http://pcs.la.psu.edu/2007AR.pdf for the PCS information
and
http://ucr.psp.state.pa.us/UCR/Repor....asp?year=2007 for the Uniform Crime Report.

The UCR reports "Offenses" or crimes reported and "Cleared" or arrests made of Part 1 Crimes (basically serious & violent felonies) and Part 2 Crimes (all others). In the report I find:

Offenses Cleared
Robbery, Firearms 8,129 2,145

Assault, Firearms 5,490 2,855

Murder, Firearms 531 464

Weapons 5,761 4,686
Carrying, Possession
etc.

Total arrests made 19,911 10,150

OK so arrests are made based on 51% of complaints.

Now here comes the hard part because the PCS doesn't use the same report definitions! So as an example we find several catagories of Homocide but none as homocide with firearms. But here's what I do find:

Table 7 Summary of Sentences Imposed by Offense Type
Doesn't even list any identifiable firearms offenses! But there is an "Other Felonies" catagory that shows 2100 (approx) convictions.

But if I add Homocide 1, 2 & 3 the total is 285

Table 16 Mandatory Sentences by Offense Type
Firearms total 324
Prohibited Bullets total 2

From Table 15 Incarceration with Deadly Weapons Enhancements total 860.

If I add all of these I come up with 3571 or 35% of arrests made.

So based on this can we surmise that Pennsylvania's UFA isn't very well upheld in the courts? And do we have justification here to use this as a club against those who seek more control over us but refuse to do anything to enforce what exists now?

[Vig]

First things first here. These are two very different crime statistic reports, and as such, it would require a great deal of statistical voodoo in order to compare them with each other. Also, a UCR classification of "Cleared" does not necessarily lead to sentencing as defined by the PCS.

Second, we can indeed surmise all we want from looking at the data, but until the number fairy shits out a meaningful statistic, all we're doing is just that, supposing.

Third, your question (How does the PA UFA fare in court?) lends itself more to a longitudinal case study than a meta-analysis of existing statistical data. This wouldn't be an overly difficult study to do, but boy would it be time consuming.

Anyway, you're on the right track with this: there needs to be more statistical surveys done of our justice system (that much is a given), but unless you're going to pony up the dough, it's not going to get done.

[granuale]

I think I speak for most lawyers when I say that if we could have done math, we would have gone to med school.

[TaePo]

First things first here. These are two very different crime statistic reports, and as such, it would require a great deal of statistical voodoo in order to compare them with each other. Also, a UCR classification of "Cleared" does not necessarily lead to sentencing as defined by the PCS.

Second, we can indeed surmise all we want from looking at the data, but until the number fairy shits out a meaningful statistic, all we're doing is just that, supposing.

Third, your question (How does the PA UFA fare in court?) lends itself more to a longitudinal case study than a meta-analysis of existing statistical data. This wouldn't be an overly difficult study to do, but boy would it be time consuming.

Anyway, you're on the right track with this: there needs to be more statistical surveys done of our justice system (that much is a given), but unless you're going to pony up the dough, it's not going to get done.

This would seem to lend itself to someone writing / applying for a Federal and / or State Grant money to do the study. Maybe get knowledgeable people involved or a trusted university source to help out.

Anyone have the skills and willingness/time to attempt?

[NY Refugee]

I think I speak for most lawyers when I say that if we could have done math, we would have gone to med school.

But who ended up with the last laugh as it is the lawyers that are suing the doctors.

[Brick]

First things first here. These are two very different crime statistic reports, and as such, it would require a great deal of statistical voodoo in order to compare them with each other. Also, a UCR classification of "Cleared" does not necessarily lead to sentencing as defined by the PCS.

Second, we can indeed surmise all we want from looking at the data, but until the number fairy shits out a meaningful statistic, all we're doing is just that, supposing.

Third, your question (How does the PA UFA fare in court?) lends itself more to a longitudinal case study than a meta-analysis of existing statistical data. This wouldn't be an overly difficult study to do, but boy would it be time consuming.

Anyway, you're on the right track with this: there needs to be more statistical surveys done of our justice system (that much is a given), but unless you're going to pony up the dough, it's not going to get done.

I know they are 2 different reports. But doesn't it follow that arrests (shown as cleared in the UCR) should result in either "charges dropped" or a sentence of "some kind". Even if the sentence is probation based on a plea bargain, there's still a sentence. Although it's true that the guilty plea entered might not be for the original charge. Which should result in charges dropped for felony weapons possession and a conviction for mopery 2nd degree. To me it is absolutely idiotic that these reports (made at considerable expense to the people of PA) can't be merged. I know the UCR is mandated by Federal law and the info gets pushed up to the Feds. But that doesn't mean it must be useless.

What I am looking for is a club that can be used to beat our Legislature silly every time they ask for more anti-gun laws. In doing so, nothing would please me more than to use their own data.