Virus Economic Effect

[icp4life162005]

There is conjecture that a lot of ammo is/was being bought as a hedge....bartering instruments for acquisition of scarce products during chaotic times.

Exactly.

And im hedging my bets on the side that we will end up bartering rounds for our freedoms.

[JAKIII]

I predict that some “furloughed” workers, will stay furloughed. Companies will use it as an opportunity to rid themselves of the unproductive dead weight employees they were carrying pre COVID19.

[God's Country]

I predict that some “furloughed” workers, will stay furloughed. Companies will use it as an opportunity to rid themselves of the unproductive dead weight employees they were carrying pre COVID19.

Indeed, I further predict many will remain "self furloughed" and collect enhanced UC for as long as they can.

[c45man]

What is it you're worried about? The future economy or making out on gunbroker?

Even though I posted my concern for the future economy of our country as my first thought, I am losing much more sleep over the few more bucks I may or may not get on gunbroker.

[chewsAside]

Here's a point of view from "market-ticker.org" that puts the economic effect right in our faces: non-farm payroll was actually understated by a factor of 4! How's that for reporting???

https://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=238784

10 Year Depression On Deck @RealDonaldTrump

Oh boy....

Total nonfarm payroll employment fell by 701,000 in March, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.4 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The changes in these measures reflect the effects of the coronavirus (COVID-19) and efforts to contain it. Employment in leisure and hospitality fell by 459,000, mainly in food services and drinking places. Notable declines also occurred in health care and social assistance, professional and business services, retail trade, and construction.

The really bad news is that the household survey closed 2 days after the establishment survey. That survey showed 2.85 million job losses, not 701,000!

Folks, there's now way to sugarcoat this: 30% of small businesses are gone. They will never reopen. We are not only destroying their cash flow the incessant prattle of fear has turned people against the premise of ever setting foot in a place where you may be within 6' of another person -- ever again.

If we do not stop that right now you could reopen every single bar and restaurant and they would have no customers. It doesn't matter whether the sign reads "open" or "closed" if nobody comes through the door to spend money. Loans, forgiven or not, do exactly nothing if there are no customers.

This threatens to be a problem that will not go away for a generation. When the Depression came through it altered behavior for nearly 50 years. This isn't that bad yet but it will end up that way if we don't cut this crap out right now.

Not in a month, not in three weeks, not at some indeterminate point when some model says it's ok, now.

Further, the collapse in health care I warned we were at risk of seeing is going to occur if we don't cut this crap out. There will be little or no warning when that comes; a demand spike into collapsing employment in the sector, and thus no people to take care of you means you will die if you have an ordinary heart attack.

Next month is going to print 10+ million jobs lost The internals in this jobs report say it might print as high as 20 million. It will break every record. The only way to stop it is to reopen the economy right now and take whatever mitigating steps we can for those who are at high risk, which we know are identified -- they are the deadly co-factors in the NY death data. Specifically, those who have Diabetes, Lung Disease, Cancer, Immunodeficiency, Heart Disease, Hypertension, Asthma, Kidney Disease or Liver Disease, either singly or in combination, should self-isolate and not live with anyone who isn't willing to do so with them. That means your groceries and such are ordered for pickup, you drive to the WalMart or wherever and the bags get loaded in the trunk, then you go back home.

Those people may also choose to take their chances and use HCQ as a prophylaxis. It may work and it may not. Some people cannot do so because of other drugs that interact badly with it, but the dose required for prophylaxis is likely similar to that for malaria, which is a once-a-week pill. Will that stop all high-risk people from getting it and potentially dying? Nope. In fact it might not help much at all. Some people will be forced off it by side effects. We don't know. But it's the best we have and the best we're going to have in the next few weeks, so you fight the war with the army you've got. We cannot sit locked down for even another three to four weeks, and you know that claims is a lie; there's no date being given, the Administration already lied once and tripled its original claimed time while some governors have even issued orders all the way out into June already.

We now have governors, mayors and others that are literally placing people under house arrest -- more than 3/4 of the nation's population is under such orders and some, including in Kentucky, are literally putting ankle bracelets on ordinary citizens to compel compliance. Walton County in Florida just banned families from sitting in their yard on property they own.

This is not theoretical any more. It is not a "inconvenience." It has destroyed consumer confidence and if we don't cut it out now it will destroy a huge percentage of economic activity on a permanent basis. You cannot fix this by handing people "money" that we do not have; more debt is the last thing this nation and its citizens need.

By June the economy will be a smoking hole in the ground from which we will not recover. We will have so-ingrained people with fear that it will not matter what you do or when you do it. That fear will last years, even decades and we absolutely must not have that happen.

Period.

We must keep people out of the hospitals that are high risk. We cannot, as a society and economy, accept the path being put forward by people on the Gates' Foundations board and their models. Their models, which are the predicate for every single one of the shutdowns thus far have already proved wrong in the case of NY; they claimed the city would need far more hospital beds and ICU beds than on this day are actually required. In fact they're so far off they're laughable yet all the so-called "experts" are still setting policy with those models. Remember, NY is the worst thus far in the US and yet the models predicted that by now it would be three times worse than it actually is. There has only been an 0.4-0.5 change in transmission rates (from ~2.7-2.2) and that is consistent, within a tenth, between NY and nationally as a whole.

I understand the fear -- it's palpable -- this is a sniper attack; you can't see him but he can kill you without warning.

I get it. It's why snipers scare the living hell out of people; a guy shooting at you who you can see is still scary, but much less-so than a gunshot that comes out of nowhere.

We must overcome the fear; we must stare it down and power through it. We have no choice.

We must take mitigating actions when and where we can. There are many. I will put up another post here shortly on this, and a podcast.

We cannot withstand, economically or in our consumer psyche, another jobs report that comes, and I remind you the survey week is next week, if it prints anything like this -- say much less one that prints a number ten times this bad, and if we do not act right now to reopen the economy that is exactly what we're going to get.

Yea We're past sleepwalking into Socialism/Totalitarianism . The lemmings are in full on run off the cliff if you'll keep us safe mentality

[normanvin]

For some people little may change. The ones still able to work. Those that are not allowed to work will come out of this behind. They at best will have some back bills to catch up on.

[chewsAside]

COVID 19: Absenteeism —
the absent word
The world’s media coverage of the potential political and social consequences of the pandemic so far has been painfully inadequate in sharing the most essential and pertinent information that should be the public’s right to know. We should all be armed with a clear idea of how individuals, communities, and the world might be impacted, and what forward planning entails. The WHO seems to be buckling under political and economic pressures rather than fulfulling its mandate. The US CDC’s responses have been ambiguous, as they kow-tow to politicians and bankers rather than focusing on the public’s well being. The media seems to be sorely lacking in investigative chutzpah. And, most surprisingly, there is one immense implication that is glaringly absent in today’s narrative:

Absenteeism.

While we’re hearing how absence from work is already impacting on economies and the stock market, the full potential impact of absenteeism is not being touched upon. Of course human deprivation under quarantine and travel restrictions is important. So are job loss, debt default, economic recession, the difficult trade-offs between human freedoms and new restrictions, and much else. We’re now seeing the deaths of a few doctors that remind us that our ultimately fragile medical infrastructures are geared for diseases we know — not mass treatment of diseases we don’t know. The tipping point would be if besieged healthy medical staff increasingly walk away from their work, deeming the risk too great.

So why would absenteeism — simply not showing up for work — ultimately transcend every other concern?

Because nothing would be more dramatic or crippling to our global infrastructure. At every workplace on the planet, when enough people don’t show up for work — even if it’s a one-man band — essential services and production stop.

In today’s hyper-connected, unimaginably complex globalised world, we’re already seeing the early consequences of absenteeism. A number of large manufacturers have announced that they will be closing their factories owing to a shortage of essential components. China manufactures components for just about everything that is made today, and is in virtual lock-down with a large percentage of its factories at every level of the world economy. But where does the greatest danger lie? Most everybody by now has heard the term “just in time”, which refers to the fact that these days very few goods are overproduced and warehoused. Instead they’re made on demand, with little or no regard to surge capacity if the need arises. The just-in-time policy is very efficient and cost-effective when everything is running smoothly. Then along comes a new virus and in no time the entire system can be knocked off kilter. Globalisation means that just enough bits-and-pieces for everything are made and shipped everywhere.

Through the carefully modulated media, the public is being prepared to anticipate some short term shortages of pharmaceutical products, and other goods, and told that it might not be a bad idea to buy a few extra jars of peanut butter and packets of rice when you next go to the supermarket. If we look a little deeper into the daily news, we’ll see that instances of food hoarding and looting are already taking place in areas under quarantine situations. Panic is starting to overwhelm rational thought and civilised behaviour.

Things would really begin to get critical if essential social services and infrastructures started to break down, and basic necessities became scarce or unavailable. Societies function because of a tacit obedience to the Rule of Law. Without it comes anarchy and chaos. The same dynamics apply to supply chain disruptions that start, say, by creating a shortage of vehicle parts and medications as we are seeing today. Unfortunately, this also applies to power grids. These comprise millions of pieces of manufactured goods, large and small, that are constantly being repaired and replaced on a daily basis. They extend in an infinitely complex web all around the planet. For the lights to stay on, the water to keep flowing in the pipes, and the toilets to keep flushing, these millions of parts and millions of workers need to be on hand. If the parts don’t show up just in time, all the dials aren’t tweaked, and all the buttons aren’t pushed, because enough workers are not on the job, the system collapses. If the trucks and cargo ships were to come to a halt, so would shipments of oil and coal that are essential for power. The internet, incidentally, is as fragile as the energy grids. It would take little to knock it over, and to lose our medical and banking records and, of course, very much more.

If many factories closed, businesses failed, and primary goods couldn’t be delivered, the consequences would be catastrophic. However, those of us who remained to pick up the pieces would eventually create new societies. But we must not forget the 450 operating nuclear power plants around the world. What would happen if their highly-specialised workforce, with scant redundancy, didn’t show up for work? A nuclear power plant can’t be disabled with the flip of a switch. The effects of a rogue shutdown would have repercussions that would last orders of magnitude of time longer than that of bacterial decomposition or the molecular breakdown of cement, steel and plastic.

Radioactivity would create dead zones, continuing to contaminate for tens of thousands of years.

It’s worth talking about the worst case scenario as we face — or don’t face — what may turn out to be the greatest challenge our civilisation has ever seen.

[Gunsnwater]

Not one mention of the debt.

Listen to the scientists.

Now that’s the definition of dystopian.

You are living every scientist’s answer to global warming.

You’ll call the police on your neighbor if they don’t comply to your satisfaction.

Those who trade freedom for the illusion of safety shall have neither.

Suddenly the fake news is nothing but credible.

I am not worried. Jesus Christ is my lord and savior. Trust the plan, God’s Plan.

You can laugh at me, but your probably worried. You don’t have to be. It’s not too late.

[bamboomaster]

Confessions Of A Sado-Maso Sex Worker In A Time Of Coronavirus

https://www.zerohedge.com/health/con...me-coronavirus

Fri, 04/10/2020 - 23:20

When we say the coronavirus impact to the economy is hitting everyone - we mean everyone. And we mean hitting.

Economic Impact of Covid-19.jpg

It's not just your local small business that has been crippled by everybody "staying the f*ck home" over the last month, but also your local sex worker.

One dominatrix, who has worked in New York for more than six years, recently shared her story with the New York Post.

Aviva Diamond, as she's called, specializes in slave training, humiliation and foot fetishes. She's learning that a pivot to online sessions as a result of the coronavirus lockdown is turning out to not quite be the same as in-person work.

She said that her clients started to get concerned in mid-March, questioning whether it would be safe to meet and whether their pre-planned business trips to New York were going to happen.

Since then, she has suffered from "thousands of dollars of cancellations" and has no physical sessions scheduled for the foreseeable future. This represents a large delta from the eight to 15 hours of in-person sessions she was taking in a week prior to the virus outbreak. Those in-person sessions made up 90% of her income, she told the Post.

Diamond confessed:

"It’s been a challenge for me to make this shift from mostly in-person sex work to exclusively operating online. I am producing more femdom videos, adding content to my online subscription platforms like Onlyfans, promoting and expanding on social media, and offering phone and Skype sessions."

But she bemoans the fact that online sessions are sold at a fraction of the rate of her physical sessions, so she has to "hustle harder" to make less than she was making prior.

And then there's the obvious: there's no real substitute for physical contact when it comes to being a dominatrix.

"I’m concerned about the long-term economic effects this will have on me. Luxury experiences are one of the first things people stop paying for during a recession, so my work is likely to be jeopardized for many months," Diamond concluded.

[middlefinger]

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my son's father in law is a snap-on tool dealer and this is a normally very busy Toyota dealer he services in NJ he took pictures of on April 5th