Pennsylvania Firearm Owners Association
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  1. #1
    Join Date
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    Default Virus Economic Effect

    After the chaos of the virus, I cannot help but be concerned over the future economic conditions in the aftermath. Even down to firearm and ammunition sales, even though right now the gun and ammo companies are having a windfall. In my opinion, there will be a lot of privately owned firearms that will be up for sale along with ammo much of which was purchased during the hoarding over the last month. There will be many cash strapped citizens that will have to make rent/mortgage. Personally, I have a number of guns on gunbroker.com that I expect will sell well in this time. In a few months, I don't know if that will be the case.

    At any rate, I hope all of our members are doing well and getting past all of this.

  2. #2
    Join Date
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    Tioga County, Pennsylvania
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    Default Re: Virus Economic Effect

    I think it's going to be a great time in the next year to pick up lots of fun toys, investments, guns and other stuff.

  3. #3
    Join Date
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    Default Re: Virus Economic Effect

    Here's a point of view from "market-ticker.org" that puts the economic effect right in our faces: non-farm payroll was actually understated by a factor of 4! How's that for reporting???

    https://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=238784

    10 Year Depression On Deck @RealDonaldTrump

    Oh boy....

    Total nonfarm payroll employment fell by 701,000 in March, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.4 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The changes in these measures reflect the effects of the coronavirus (COVID-19) and efforts to contain it. Employment in leisure and hospitality fell by 459,000, mainly in food services and drinking places. Notable declines also occurred in health care and social assistance, professional and business services, retail trade, and construction.

    The really bad news is that the household survey closed 2 days after the establishment survey. That survey showed 2.85 million job losses, not 701,000!

    Folks, there's now way to sugarcoat this: 30% of small businesses are gone. They will never reopen. We are not only destroying their cash flow the incessant prattle of fear has turned people against the premise of ever setting foot in a place where you may be within 6' of another person -- ever again.

    If we do not stop that right now you could reopen every single bar and restaurant and they would have no customers. It doesn't matter whether the sign reads "open" or "closed" if nobody comes through the door to spend money. Loans, forgiven or not, do exactly nothing if there are no customers.

    This threatens to be a problem that will not go away for a generation. When the Depression came through it altered behavior for nearly 50 years. This isn't that bad yet but it will end up that way if we don't cut this crap out right now.

    Not in a month, not in three weeks, not at some indeterminate point when some model says it's ok, now.

    Further, the collapse in health care I warned we were at risk of seeing is going to occur if we don't cut this crap out. There will be little or no warning when that comes; a demand spike into collapsing employment in the sector, and thus no people to take care of you means you will die if you have an ordinary heart attack.

    Next month is going to print 10+ million jobs lost The internals in this jobs report say it might print as high as 20 million. It will break every record. The only way to stop it is to reopen the economy right now and take whatever mitigating steps we can for those who are at high risk, which we know are identified -- they are the deadly co-factors in the NY death data. Specifically, those who have Diabetes, Lung Disease, Cancer, Immunodeficiency, Heart Disease, Hypertension, Asthma, Kidney Disease or Liver Disease, either singly or in combination, should self-isolate and not live with anyone who isn't willing to do so with them. That means your groceries and such are ordered for pickup, you drive to the WalMart or wherever and the bags get loaded in the trunk, then you go back home.

    Those people may also choose to take their chances and use HCQ as a prophylaxis. It may work and it may not. Some people cannot do so because of other drugs that interact badly with it, but the dose required for prophylaxis is likely similar to that for malaria, which is a once-a-week pill. Will that stop all high-risk people from getting it and potentially dying? Nope. In fact it might not help much at all. Some people will be forced off it by side effects. We don't know. But it's the best we have and the best we're going to have in the next few weeks, so you fight the war with the army you've got. We cannot sit locked down for even another three to four weeks, and you know that claims is a lie; there's no date being given, the Administration already lied once and tripled its original claimed time while some governors have even issued orders all the way out into June already.

    We now have governors, mayors and others that are literally placing people under house arrest -- more than 3/4 of the nation's population is under such orders and some, including in Kentucky, are literally putting ankle bracelets on ordinary citizens to compel compliance. Walton County in Florida just banned families from sitting in their yard on property they own.

    This is not theoretical any more. It is not a "inconvenience." It has destroyed consumer confidence and if we don't cut it out now it will destroy a huge percentage of economic activity on a permanent basis. You cannot fix this by handing people "money" that we do not have; more debt is the last thing this nation and its citizens need.

    By June the economy will be a smoking hole in the ground from which we will not recover. We will have so-ingrained people with fear that it will not matter what you do or when you do it. That fear will last years, even decades and we absolutely must not have that happen.

    Period.

    We must keep people out of the hospitals that are high risk. We cannot, as a society and economy, accept the path being put forward by people on the Gates' Foundations board and their models. Their models, which are the predicate for every single one of the shutdowns thus far have already proved wrong in the case of NY; they claimed the city would need far more hospital beds and ICU beds than on this day are actually required. In fact they're so far off they're laughable yet all the so-called "experts" are still setting policy with those models. Remember, NY is the worst thus far in the US and yet the models predicted that by now it would be three times worse than it actually is. There has only been an 0.4-0.5 change in transmission rates (from ~2.7-2.2) and that is consistent, within a tenth, between NY and nationally as a whole.

    I understand the fear -- it's palpable -- this is a sniper attack; you can't see him but he can kill you without warning.

    I get it. It's why snipers scare the living hell out of people; a guy shooting at you who you can see is still scary, but much less-so than a gunshot that comes out of nowhere.

    We must overcome the fear; we must stare it down and power through it. We have no choice.

    We must take mitigating actions when and where we can. There are many. I will put up another post here shortly on this, and a podcast.

    We cannot withstand, economically or in our consumer psyche, another jobs report that comes, and I remind you the survey week is next week, if it prints anything like this -- say much less one that prints a number ten times this bad, and if we do not act right now to reopen the economy that is exactly what we're going to get.
    - bamboomaster

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Default Re: Virus Economic Effect

    Guns and ammo are the LAST things on my mind, work is a 24/7 thought. Thats what I'm worried about.

  5. #5
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    Default Re: Virus Economic Effect

    My concerns on the economic issues go back to February, when china was going full bore on the virus and their production lines were shutting down. Without their products, US businesses will have a lot less to sell. Also, back then I realized that there was no way this was not going pandemic. Once we got into March and it bloomed over here, and the rest of the world, I knew that we are truly in economic trouble.

  6. #6
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    Default Re: Virus Economic Effect

    Well bamboo... Despite any pleas from those wanting to return to work for the sake of the economy, is easier said than done. Death rate caused by this virus continues to rise and the economy will have to wait. You are right though, when we return to an unsheltered life we will face a different business environment.
    ,

  7. #7
    Join Date
    Oct 2012
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    Default Re: Virus Economic Effect

    Hi, how's your mental health?

  8. #8
    Join Date
    Apr 2007
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    Northern Tier, Pennsylvania
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    Default Re: Virus Economic Effect

    Quote Originally Posted by c45man View Post
    After the chaos of the virus, I cannot help but be concerned over the future economic conditions in the aftermath. Even down to firearm and ammunition sales, even though right now the gun and ammo companies are having a windfall. In my opinion, there will be a lot of privately owned firearms that will be up for sale along with ammo much of which was purchased during the hoarding over the last month. There will be many cash strapped citizens that will have to make rent/mortgage. Personally, I have a number of guns on gunbroker.com that I expect will sell well in this time. In a few months, I don't know if that will be the case.

    At any rate, I hope all of our members are doing well and getting past all of this.
    What is it you're worried about? The future economy or making out on gunbroker?

  9. #9
    Join Date
    Oct 2012
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    Default Re: Virus Economic Effect

    I am curious to see what changes come and remain post chirus 2020, I know there will be plenty.
    Hi, how's your mental health?

  10. #10
    Join Date
    Feb 2010
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    Levittown, Pennsylvania
    (Bucks County)
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    Default Re: Virus Economic Effect

    There is conjecture that a lot of ammo is/was being bought as a hedge....bartering instruments for acquisition of scarce products during chaotic times.
    Legislating to prevent people's acts is fantasy

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