Information Dump:
I am very familiar with the shipping facilities at UPS and FEDEX because of previous management experience. In my time we had several guns break out of their packaging and fall onto conveyor belts and the floor, being handled and seen by dozens of employees. To my knowledge we never lost one outright, but they were always scratched or damaged in some manner. It is certainly possible we may have lost magazines, or gun parts if they were not attached to the gun.

In a few of those cases the sender had been deceptive and was shipping to private locations, not FFLs. This is against policy because shippers can be on the hook for legal technicalities and lawsuits. In cases when the sender lies by not disclosing it as a firearm, we cannot continue to ship it to its location once we discover what it is. So we hold the firearm in a locked room that only a few employees have access to, and we call the cops to come and take it. We give them the firearm and the shipping address label, and the cops deal with it from there. Presumably this is a bad experience for whomever is on the shipping label.

That is what happens if your packaging is damaged and the gun becomes visible or falls out, and is not being shipped to a FFL address.

If it is being shipped to an FFL address, there is still the possibility that it could be damaged, or even fall out of the packaging altogether. But as long as the firearm and its shipping label do not become separated, we can deliver it.

In addition there is the remote possibility that the firearm could find a way to walk out of the building in someone's lunch box.

If your package winds up crossing into Jersey or new york because of a mis-sort, or if the driver's route has him hauling that way, and it somehow breaks out of its packaging in one of those states, then all bets are off. My guess is you go to Guantanamo.

UPS and FEDEX have something like a 99.98% success rate, but most facilities are handling 20,000+ packages per hour, which means at least two or three packages are being damaged/lost/destroyed/stolen per hour. Nobody wants that, but it is reality.

If the packaging is not damaged and nothing arouses suspicion, I suppose it would arrive at your house and sit on the porch until you get home and pick it up.