I'd like to see the real stats.

[TaePo]

Where did you get the 90%? I can't see your math.

I think you are correct. I believe he may have gotten stuck on the 88% figure rather than the 74% of that 88% who had prior violent arrests. (This would under report the 'prohibited persons' since non-violent prohibitive convictions such as drugs, domestics (maybe), and M1s for example would not be included.) Further, the stats only mention arrested for, not actual convictions, so the conclusion that 74% were prohibited does not account for charges nolle processed or dropped due to pleas etc.

So that is one argument to say that the numbers may be 'under' reported and one for 'over' reported.

In summary, we really can't even approximate what he wanted to say, to be honest. But I think the concept in general probably holds true we just can't put a number on it with the information given.

[Delkal]

Where did you get the 90%? I can't see your math.

I guess I thought if you had an arrest history there is a pretty good chance you don't have a LTCF. So you are carrying illegally. And 88% is close enough to 90%. I just put in the stat about 74% being previous violent felons for fun.

Yes this overcounts the fine Philadelphia citizens that were arrested and the charges were dropped or plead down. But I don't think they had a LTCF either.

Everyone can make their own conclusions from the data but it is perfectly clear in Philadelphia vast majority of murders are black felons killing other black felons.