Kel-Tec SU16 or AR15 for first firearm (on a budget)

[KCJones]

what do we think prices will bottom out at?
we should start some serious discussions about price -bottoms- for ammo and firearms... i personally like to *get the most for my buck.

*(although i remember what the reloading thread turned into.... so maybe we should avoid said topics)

I'm guessing a good (not great, but good) basic 'stripped' flat-top AR will bottom out around $300 in the next 6 months as various online/offline dealers clear their overbought inventory. Brands like Delton, Anderson, Windham. MAYBE you'll see S&W Sportsters there. That'll be the low-point 'sale' or 'clearance' price. I think we're already seeing 'entry level' AR's coming down around $500-$550 pretty standard, and I think $400-$450 will be the typical "you can find one on sale for that most any time without working at it" price. $300 will be the 'bottom' of it, still not easy to find or frequent.

I think that's all driven by an inventory/demand disparity that will abate eventually. I'm guessing it will then gradually get back up to about $600 for a 'good' entry-level AR - by, say, late 2017/early 2018. Much below that, long term, and it's just not gonna cover materials, labor and transport costs for all concerned. At a 'stability' level like that, I'm guessing you'll see maybe $50 less to buy online than in store, and folks can decide if they value service, 'take it home now' and such versus saving $50...

What I don't know is if the overstock is mostly retail or goes all the way back to wholesale/manufacturer. If the manufacturers cranked 'em out to sell 'em to retailers who were stock up, then the timing above applies. IF, however, they not only did that but also warehoused a pile of finished guns (or even parts) in anticipation of more... then the overstock goes a step further up the supply chain and may take a year of lower prices to clear.

In both cases (retailer and wholesaler) they've likely tapped their line of credit to 'stock up' and their desperation to sell, sell, sell will be heavily contingent on how tough they're finding it to make payments. THAT is where (especially if the price lull lasts longer) you could see retailers and wholesalers going belly-up. When they're selling stuff at 'fire sale' prices to make the LOC payment, but then don't have money left to buy/make more inventory, things get bad fast.

Ditto on ammo. I think it'll drop a -little- more. e.g. my benchmarks of brass 9mm FMJ and brass .223 FMJ will probably come down to $0.15/round and $0.25/round respectively (in bulk) before heading back to over-$0.20 and over-$0.30 a round respectively. I wouldn't be shocked if we've bottomed, though, and those stay at $0.20 and $0.30/round and not much lower. My impression is the 'overstock' in ammo is not nearly so potent as that in firearms (and AR's in particular).

Just my guess / 2c.

[KCJones]

This is posted on their front page: I've made a couple purchases from them about a year ago. Positive experience.

And props to them for putting it up front. As someone who regularly pisses-and-moans about sellers shipping slow, the one thing that makes me go "ok no problem" is when they're up-front about it.

[fallenleader]

I say don't look a gift horse in the mouth - just be happy they don't cost $3,000 for an Anderson like they did a few short years ago.

I don't really think they will get THAT much lower but who knows.
I'm just so happy to see the average Joe being able to afford one.


Let's put this into perspective... a Hi-Point carbine runs damned close to $300.

Crazy.

ty and ghetto sheque` Niche market drives higher hi point prices.

Helluva deal on that Ruger, and six more 'similar items in stock' good ones on that same page (all under $800... ahem!). Gonna be adding that vendor to my 'list'. Thanks!

i was reading qc issues or ruger, not so much smithwesson. dollar to dollar id go sport II if flash hider is removable. havent looked ino it yet

too long to quote but, thanks for the perspectibe KC.
guess ill buy or build mine this summer.

[KCJones]

ty and ghetto sheque` Niche market drives higher hi point prices.

i was reading qc issues or ruger, not so much smithwesson. dollar to dollar id go sport II if flash hider is removable. havent looked ino it yet

too long to quote but, thanks for the perspectibe KC.
guess ill buy or build mine this summer.

1) I will never again spell 'chic' the same way. I'm gonna add 'ghetto sheque' to my list right alongside "ghetto rich" (just got a tax refund), though balance compels me to say I've also heard "White Trash Rich" used as the same definition. Thanks for that.

2) I'm not that familiar with either ruger or S&W for AR platform, actually. Just lumping them all together as 'entry-level, factory-made, known-brand, new' AR's. I'm actually more familiar with Anderson and DelTon (fan of both).

I'm actually tempted to say "buy a used sig M400 for about that same price" - an AR variant with which I've been very impressed. But 'used' opens up a WHOLE new can of worms.

[Emptymag]

Honestly, speaking from the "older and wiser" (well, older, anyway) and "been there done that" perspective, I'd buy an "entry level" for a first gun.

You're gonna find out just how versatile they are and end up wanting more. By that point you will have a feel for what you REALLY want.
At that point you either buy what you really want, or BUILD it to the exact specs you want.

I started my journey into the world of AR15s in 2008.
At that point I thought they were "complicated", required too much maintenance, and cost WAY more than the average person could afford.
I was then shown the light - the way to afford one of these "thousand dollar rifles" was to build one from parts!
At that point I was still too overwhelmed at the though of it, so I did a "KIT" build - an upper that was already assembled and all the parts needed aside from a stripped lower. I got the lower, got it together and slapped the upper on. Done!

Then I wanted a 22LR AR15.
Same deal. Got a dedicated 22 upper and put the rest together from parts.

Then I wanted a second 5.56. My first one was OK, but I wanted one with some better quality components, so I started buying them as I saw them for good prices. A part here and there over the next year or so until I had everything I needed to build it.

Then I wanted a 9mm AR15. Same deal - bought it in pieces.
I had another forum member put the barrel onto the upper for me since I didn't have the proper wrench and such for that portion.
Had I known at the beginning that I would build so many I would have bought the damned tools!

Then I wanted an AR15 pistol. Again, I bought it as I found deals on the specific parts I wanted.

Then I wanted a 7.62x39 AR15 and as with the others I'm building it by picking and choosing the exact parts I want.
Should be done soon!

Oh yeah... I'm also building a lightweight AR for my wife. Parts are being sourced specifically for their weight savings and that one is about half way on the parts acquired now.

A 9mm AR pistol is on the "want" list too... and a 45ACP would be sweet too.


I will admit that I once wanted a Kel-Tec SU16.
I doubt I'd ever want nearly a dozen of them.

[fallenleader]

1) I will never again spell 'chic' the same way. I'm gonna add 'ghetto sheque' to my list right alongside "ghetto rich" (just got a tax refund), though balance compels me to say I've also heard "White Trash Rich" used as the same definition. Thanks for that.

2) I'm not that familiar with either ruger or S&W for AR platform, actually. Just lumping them all together as 'entry-level, factory-made, known-brand, new' AR's. I'm actually more familiar with Anderson and DelTon (fan of both).

I'm actually tempted to say "buy a used sig M400 for about that same price" - an AR variant with which I've been very impressed. But 'used' opens up a WHOLE new can of worms.

yeah... spelling. lol. i was reading a lot on the S&w and the ruger, thats the only bad i found was some QC issues on the ruger, pins not being set right, crap like that.

i'd still love to build up and would love even more to build an ar-10 platform, wife couldn't use it then though.
not a yuuge fan of .223 but it is more common.

[eatmydust]

i'd still love to build up and would love even more to build an ar-10 platform, wife couldn't use it then though.
not a yuuge fan of .223 but it is more common.

Having both an AR15 and an AR10, I don't see why your wife can't handle the AR10 with a bipod from a bench, which is how I have my AR10 set up. Admittedly, the AR10 is about 3 - 4 lbs. heavier than the AR15 but that added weight helps to absorb the recoil, and I did add a recoil pad to the stock for added comfort.

[Emptymag]

yeah... spelling. lol. i was reading a lot on the S&w and the ruger, thats the only bad i found was some QC issues on the ruger, pins not being set right, crap like that.

i'd still love to build up and would love even more to build an ar-10 platform, wife couldn't use it then though.
not a yuuge fan of .223 but it is more common.

Split the difference and build a 7.62x39!!!

Weight? No more than any other AR15. Mine actually feels like it may be lighter than my lightest (not a true lightweight build) 5.56.
I got the "A2" profile barrel from PSA. It doesn't have the same thickness as some other barrels. Not a lightweight/pencil, but light enough to notice.
I'll have to get an accurate weight once I get the BCG for it.

[fallenleader]

Having both an AR15 and an AR10, I don't see why your wife can't handle the AR10 with a bipod from a bench, which is how I have my AR10 set up. Admittedly, the AR10 is about 3 - 4 lbs. heavier than the AR15 but that added weight helps to absorb the recoil, and I did add a recoil pad to the stock for added comfort.

she just doesn't like recoil. doesn't like the 12ga, doesn't like the 91/30 and doesn't like my 9mm. she got her set of .22 toys and likes them. lol wimin.

Split the difference and build a 7.62x39!!!

Weight? No more than any other AR15. Mine actually feels like it may be lighter than my lightest (not a true lightweight build) 5.56.
I got the "A2" profile barrel from PSA. It doesn't have the same thickness as some other barrels. Not a lightweight/pencil, but light enough to notice.
I'll have to get an accurate weight once I get the BCG for it.

don't want to end up in the scenario i'm in now. 7.62x54r is expensive now, sticking to nato rounds from now on. plentiful and when shtf everyone has it. your allies, your enemies. everyone except the commies.

[Maquis]

EM nails it.

You're basically here in the U.S. asking whether to buy a Ford or a Citroen.

One is cheap, reliable, has bajillions of parts available, service everywhere and countless options to customize.

The other is obscure, unreliable, and hard to find anything for, even if it has a bit of 'cool factor' going for it.

I just bought a brand-new Windham AR for $399 out the door... Lubed it up and took it to the range today and ran >100 rounds through it with utter reliability and good accuracy. Threw a $30 cheap red-dot on it and was hitting bullseyes with <1.5" groupoings at 25 yards out of the box. At 50 yards, took a little sighting in to achieve the same (didn't and wouldn't use a red-dot at 100 yards+). Ran out of time to sight-in the scope I got for it for longer-range shots.

Point is completely reliable, very accurate, factory-made with warranty AR for $400.

I expect we'll soon see $300 factory-made AR's available. For $800, the "The world should be your oyster"...

Without question the sensible choice is AR.

Ditto!!!