Philly Murder rates before 1996 ?

[cz_40p]

I seem to remember reading the Crime Reports on the FBI's website a few years ago. I was particularly interested in the murder rates for Philadelphia. I remember thinking at the time, the rates in 1980's Philadelphia were just as high if not higher than present. They seemed to take a real dip in the early 1990's. Now they have been creeping back up again. What really has me perplexed is, all of the data from before 1995 does not seem to be easily available on the web anymore. I have spent hours searching for Philadelphia's overall murder rate from the eighties and early nineties. I just can't find any relevant data............My hypothesis is that the anti-gun crowd only quotes those statistic that support the cause of disarmament. It kind of reminds me of the current debate over global warming, only those statics that predict eminent gloom and doom are allowed into the debate.

I may be wrong, but I think the murder rates were in fact much higher in the eighties, took a dip in the early nineties, and have been inching back up since about 1996. Whenever I see an article in the press about the rising murder rate in Philadelphia, the writer invariably cites the rise from 1996, but doesn't relate the lower rates that preceded.
If I am correct, why the dip in the early nineties?. Was it the passing of Concealed Carry in PA., or was it just a change in the drug culture?. Some have suggested that for all of the police and politicians posturing and back slapping (Operation Clean Streets) the real drop in crimes had more to do with the change within the street culture from cocaine to heroin and meth. The folks on cocaine were some of the most violent criminals in memory, while heroin addicts are responsible for more property theft, they seem to be less violent.

I have a good memory, I do remember reading those Crime Reports a few years ago. Now I seem to be chasing a ghost. Anyone know where the murder stats for Philadelphia from 1980 to 1995 may be located on the web?

[Murf_The_Surf]

Here are the stats, all sliced and diced to your order, back to 1985.
Hope this helps.


http://bjsdata.ojp.usdoj.gov/dataonl...alHomicide.cfm

[KeithPA]

Year - Number of homicide victims

1985 - 273
1986 - 343
1987 - 338
1988 - 374
1989 - 475
1990 - 503
1991 - 440
1992 - 425
1993 - 439
1994 - 404
1995 - 432
1996 - 420
1997 - 418
1998 - 338
1999 - 292
2000 - 319
2001 - 309
2002 - 288
2003 - 348
2004 - 330
2005 - 377

Looks like it used to be a little worse back then.

[danp]

Originally Posted by Murf_The_Surf

Here are the stats, all sliced and diced to your order, back to 1985.
Hope this helps.


http://bjsdata.ojp.usdoj.gov/dataonl...alHomicide.cfm

This is an awesome link that I had not seen before. Thanks for sharing and welcome to the forum!

[Murf_The_Surf]

Originally Posted by danp

This is an awesome link that I had not seen before. Thanks for sharing and welcome to the forum!

Thanks Dan. This is an awesome site. Glad to be here.

[cz_40p]

Many thanks to Murf_The_Surf, try as I did, I could not Google those figures.

Also thanks to DeltaII5, for formating and posting the data.
Looks like my memory was correct. I have also been told that PPD was noted for under-reporting the crime figures back in the day, so it was most likely even worse. Next time the Inquirer reports the rate is up, someone should ask " Compared to when?"

When did PA pass the laws that liberalized conceal carry? Somewhere in the early nineties? I wonder if that correlates to the drop for those few years.

[cz_40p]

Wow something else I just noticed by comparing different years of that site, in the past while the murder rates were in fact similar, a much larger portion of the murders were committed with a knife . In some years as many as 30% of the overall murders were committed with knife. I find that fact astounding!

I think that fact alone takes the onus off firearms in general as the root cause. Philadelphia has a MURDER problem, not a GUN problem. The facts speak volumes.

Those figures from this site are fascinating. I urge everyone to do your own research.

http://bjsdata.ojp.usdoj.gov/dataonl...alHomicide.cfm

[KeithPA]

Originally Posted by cz_40p

Many thanks to Murf_The_Surf, try as I did, I could not Google those figures.

Also thanks to DeltaII5, for formating and posting the data.
Looks like my memory was correct. I have also been told that PPD was noted for under-reporting the crime figures back in the day, so it was most likely even worse. Next time the Inquirer reports the rate is up, someone should ask " Compared to when?"

When did PA pass the laws that liberalized conceal carry? Somewhere in the early nineties? I wonder if that correlates to the drop for those few years.

According to that gif image it was 1989 that it became Shall Issue. Not sure how accurate it is.

But don't forget the Uniform Firearm Laws wasn't passed till 1995/1996, before that Philly had its own laws. So technically when Philly residents could get CCWs (since before that apparantly it was hard to get in Philly) the murder rate started to decline. Is that the reason? Who knows.

[Murf_The_Surf]

Originally Posted by cz_40p

Wow something else I just noticed by comparing different years of that site, in the past while the murder rates were in fact similar, a much larger portion of the murders were committed with a knife . In some years as many as 30% of the overall murders were committed with knife. I find that fact astounding!

I think that fact alone takes the onus off firearms in general as the root cause. Philadelphia has a MURDER problem, not a GUN problem. The facts speak volumes.

Those figures from this site are fascinating. I urge everyone to do your own research.

http://bjsdata.ojp.usdoj.gov/dataonl...alHomicide.cfm

That's a good point (no pun intended).

What is also fascinating is the fact that murders with knives far outnumber murders with guns in countries that relatively recently imposed draconian gun bans, but the overall murder rates have increased as well.

For example, in Britain, knifing murders outnumber shooting murders by 3 to 1.

This demonstrates that criminals will substitute other lethal weapons when guns are more difficult to obtain. (I'm not sure that a murder victim is better off because he was stabbed rather than shot.) In addition, since handguns are the ideal self defense tool, when law abiding citizens are prohibited from having hand guns they more easily fall victim to the bad guys.

So much for the hand wringing over the "failure" of the US to get its "gun problem" under control like the British supposedly have.

As shall-issue concealed carry advanced across the US, violent crime dropped. Meanwhile, as British gun controls became ever more severe, culminating with a handgun ban in 1997, violent crime escalated until the rate of violent crime in Britain surpassed the rate in the US about six years ago.
Check out this British news story from June 25th of this year:

http://www.lse.co.uk/ShowStory.asp?s...out_of_control

Now the British government is attempting to cook the numbers to give the illusion they are succeeding in getting crime under control.

http://www.americanchronicle.com/art...articleID=6059

[MarcS]

[quote=cz_40p;88066]If I am correct, why the dip in the early nineties?. Was it the passing of Concealed Carry in PA., or was it just a change in the drug culture?. Some have suggested that for all of the police and politicians posturing and back slapping (Operation Clean Streets) the real drop in crimes had more to do with the change within the street culture from cocaine to heroin and meth. The folks on cocaine were some of the most violent criminals in memory, while heroin addicts are responsible for more property theft, they seem to be less violent.[quote]

Year - Number of homicide victims

1985 - 273
1986 - 343
1987 - 338
1988 - 374
1989 - 475
1990 - 503
1991 - 440
1992 - 425
1993 - 439
1994 - 404
1995 - 432
1996 - 420
1997 - 418
1998 - 338
1999 - 292
2000 - 319
2001 - 309
2002 - 288
2003 - 348
2004 - 330
2005 - 377

Compare these mumbers to how well the economy wass doing. That is the only trend that seems to match the crime rate over any significant time.