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  1. #1
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    Default McCain-Palin Ahead in Ohio, Even With a Democrat-Heavy Sample

    McCain-Palin Ahead in Ohio, Even With a Democrat-Heavy Sample

    Tomorrow Strategic Vision will be releasing Ohio and Georgia polls, and what they found in the Buckeye State really surprises me.

    In Ohio, they find McCain-Palin ahead of Obama-Biden up, 48 percent to 44 percent. But what makes those numbers really eye-opening is the breakdown of the sample: 576 (48%) identified themselves as Democrats; 444 (37%) identified themselves as Republicans; and 170 (15%) identified themselves as Independent or other party affiliation.

    In Georgia, they find McCain/Palin ahead of Obama/Biden, 52 percent to 39 percent. In that sample, the GOP/Dem/Ind split is 46-41-13.

    The margin of error in both polls is plus or minus three percentage points.

    It's now pretty plausible to argue that if Obama is going to win the presidency, he's going to have to do it without Ohio and without Florida. Not impossible, but quite difficult.
    Of every one hundred men in battle, ten should not even be there. Eighty, are nothing but targets. Nine are the real fighters, we are lucky to have them since they make the battle. Ah, but the one—one is the Warrior—and he brings the others home. —Heracletus


  2. #2
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    Default Re: McCain-Palin Ahead in Ohio, Even With a Democrat-Heavy Sample

    How are these polls collected?

    I only trust random sample, and even then you're leaving your sample up to randomness which could give you a slanted result set either way.

    People will change their minds come election day, from one side to the other or decide to not vote at all, so it's going to be hard to say without it being november and me staying up until the shit's counted.

    Someone asked me what I would do if Obama won.

    I'll critique and criticize every move he makes against liberty and freedom.

    I then added,

    If he loses. I'll critique and criticize every move McCain makes against liberty and freedom.

    I have to let people know that I don't care which political party wins, I care that AMERICA wins.

  3. #3
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    Default Re: McCain-Palin Ahead in Ohio, Even With a Democrat-Heavy Sample

    scott rassmussen has said a few times that the republicans usually hold a silent 3-5% advantage in most polls. so if its tied, he said the republican will be the most likely to win. i would guess that would apply here, especially with so many more dem's, so the real split is probably even wider.
    http://www.io.com/~velte/quotes.htm

    "...a Man that hath a Sword by his side, shall have least occasion to make use of it."
    John Trenchard

  4. #4
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    Default Re: McCain-Palin Ahead in Ohio, Even With a Democrat-Heavy Sample

    No matter which side is ahead the other will be sampled higher to keep it close. The true polls will not hit until the weekend before the election.
    If one or the other is losing by 5-8 points or more no pollster would want it out because most would feel the race is over and they would see their business drop. Close means people read more and watch more TV and people spend a whole lot of money on buying lots and lots of polls from these companies. If one side or the other has been ahead the whole time about ten days before you will see the numbers start to swing to their side. By Monday they will be as close to the actual vote numbers as can be predicted.
    You ever notice how there is this big shift the week before the election?
    Look how close the polls were between John Kerry and George Bush were.
    And yet the final numbers were not really as close as the poll suggested.
    The Democrats were shocked in 1994 when the polls never showed the tidal wave that was about to hit Congress and the Senate. It wasn't until late Friday to Monday morning that the politicians realized there was something big coming on Tuesday.

  5. #5
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    Default Re: McCain-Palin Ahead in Ohio, Even With a Democrat-Heavy Sample

    I think the debates will decide it. It will all come down to whether or not Palin will be able to demonstrate an ability to debate all issues well. If she blows it, it may cost the election because it will make McCain look like a fool. If she does well, he will look like a genius. I think Independents will sway toward Obama if she does poorly. If it's a draw, it's a win for McCain.
    "The American people will never knowingly adopt socialism. But, under the name of 'liberalism,' they will adopt every fragment of the socialist program, until one day America will be a socialist nation, without knowing how it happened."
    - Norman Thomas, U.S. Socialist Party presidential candidate 1940, 1944 and 1948

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