Time frame before bans begin???

[Lougotzz]

I want to know your thoughts on when the gun bans will begin. Federal and or state.

If you state a time frame please put a reason why you think that time frame.

If you have thoughts on what they will start with first please state that as well.


I really wish this wasn't reality but it is. Thanks

[jack76590]

Reintroduction of AWB in 2007 15%, chance of passage 10%-democrats don't want to lose gunowners votes or introduction would be sure thing and they have lot on their plate at this point.

Reintroduction of AWB by 2008 25%, chance of passage 20%- democrats still don't want to lose gunowners votes, but they may now feel it is a good campaign issue, all depends on the political winds

Reintroduction of AWB by 2009 75%, chance of passage 70% - we all know democrats want it and a this point I give them 75% chance of taking presidency and holding majority of both houses in 2008 election.

If enacted I expect any AWB legislation to have no sunset provision. However, I expect them to grandfather in most weapons and magazines as it is too difficult and political unpopular to seize things from people.

I expect no ban on imported ammuntion until democrat president is elected. Then it may happen by executive order.

If Hillary is elected president I except her to introduce a "sin tax" on ammuntion. I would give it less than 50% chance of passing.

So before 2008 election is minor chance of new AWB and not much else. If Democrats take presidency and hold majority in congress then I expect many bad things to happen. And I give them a good 75% chance of that type of victory at this point.

[Lougotzz]

jack you have a better out look then me. From what you say thats good news(only in a time frame) not actually good news. I expect things to happen soon. I hope not. I hope we defeat hillary in 2008. I am very dissappointed in what is happening in this country. I feel we are on borrowed time. not only with guns but as an American way of life.

[Warners Surplus]

I don't think you will see the Demorats do anything more than test the water and blow alot of smoke between now and the next election.

I think what we will see is alot of BS laws coming up for vote that will be defeated (nothing more than a smoke screen) evan some of the Demorats will vote against them. The goal will be to get voter (gun owner) confidence and then when our next president (a Democrat) gets elected. we will see the same demorats that vote against anti-gun laws now, turn just like Gore did with Tenn. when he signed on with Clinton.

I hope I'm wrong but I'm afraid to many gun owners will think the same laws will fail a second time (arfter the 08 election) and SURPRISE we start seeing law after law wacking us in the head.

1. A new AWB concrete solid banning anything semi auto with the exception of 22's and shotguns.

2. A limit on high cap handgun mags and then a limit on semi-auto handguns.

3. Next will be the hefty tax on ALL ammo and a ban on the sale of ALL Mil-Surplus (evil armor piercing) ammo. After all 30/06 FMJ has to be a cop killer because it will cut clean through a police Kevlar vest.

4. A ban on the transfer of any and all class 3 stuff to be followed by a ban on anything with an AOW classification after all they will explain to the sheeple that the AOW classification is for any weapon with a use other than hunting or target use.

And the list will go on for atleast 4 years!!!!

JMHO though

Rich W.

[PA Rifleman]

Originally Posted by jack76590

...
I expect no ban on imported ammuntion until democrat president is elected. Then it may happen by executive order.

I...

So before 2008 election is minor chance of new AWB and not much else. If Democrats take presidency and hold majority in congress then I expect many bad things to happen. And I give them a good 75% chance of that type of victory at this point.

I have the same expectation. Hillary will be able to control imports without oversight or accountability. With a democratic-controlled congress, she won't have to worry too much about alienating any decisive Republicans.

They know many US citizens are smarting from the GOP mistakes, and have nowhere to turn. The Libertarians don't have a snowball's chance in hell of anything more than state election victories for now.

The signs are there for those that can see them:



The only real concern they'll have is avoiding too much controversy (an ever widening chasm) in anticipation of winning the next round of congressional & senatorial elections. If they succeed in pulling off a major political coup (dignified exit from Iraq, Afghanistan & elsewhere) they'll pretty much have free run here.

Many d's have expressed a wide range of emotion over the AWB expiry, ranging from regret to outrage. Since assault weapons (their definition....not mine) & handguns are high on their list, expect legislation in that direction, along with the usual sacrifices of the innocents...high capacity magazines, various cosmetic features, etc.

The Rs have us by the stones, since they have learned that by being just as restrictive as the Ds is a zero-loss strategy as long as we're bipartisan.

So, I suspect 2007 & possibly the first half of 2008 will be another "golden era" we will reflect on in the not-too distant future.

Most of my experiences have been locating and repairing ComBlock small arms since 1976-77, so that tends to be my perspective in my posts.

I get the impression, right or wrong, that it's point of honor now. The D's want those AKs and ARs out of circulation NOW. It's a moot point what the effect will be, good or bad. It's a symbolic, emotional and cultural issue.

Also note the rising price of ammunition, particularly imported ammunition. This does not appear to be related the the election results, and also does not bode well in the long run. Hopefully ammunition prices will drop down to pre-2004 levels.

For anyone who wants a brief stroll down memory lane, see below:

In the mid 80s, I bought several $59 Chinese SKSs. The AKs were $259, fixed or folding stocks, and side-folders or underfolders. Those that made it into the US before 1990 were the true "pre-ban" and lacked only the full-auto feature. Also available were AKs in .223 Rem (AK-84) for a few dollars more. Those same guns sell for 2-3 times that figure now. The Chinese made a few last attempts to get back into the US market, but Klinton responded by cutting all arms off from China using human rights abuse as pretext. Take a look on the online gun auction site to see what they're worth now.

Very early Chinese AKMS (circa 1984) with black fiberglass stock furniture (author's collection):

Norinco AK-84S, under-folding variant. Click image to see source.

AK-84, fixed stock (author's collection):

(Top) Russian SKS (Bottom) early Chinese military SKS. Both unaltered from military configuration. (author's collection)


The folding AK-84 (.223, center) isn't mine. The rest are. I have less than $650 invested in all of them collectively. The trick is timing -- wait until the market bottoms, but before they're banned or no longer deemed importable. From my humble experience, that condition appears to be the case with the Yugoslavian SKS rifles and Romanian AKs now, especially the WASR series AKs.

If by some remote chance relations with Russia deteriorate, snap up all the Mosin-Nagant rifles and Nagant pistols you can lay your hands on. This $179 SVT-40 has since appreciated to over $500 since the implementation of the voluntary restraint agreement with Russia.

[PA Rifleman]

Originally Posted by Lougotzz

... I hope we defeat hillary in 2008. ...

The dems won the battle for the White House last fall.

Unless you're a congressman, you can save your hope for your next gun purchases. You & I have absolutely no direct say in the Presidential election since the popular vote carries no legally recognized status (details). This leaves congress free to abide or ignore the popular vote as they see fit.

Congress has always chosen the President, it's called the Electoral College. It should be called the presidential appointment committee, but that's just MHO.

[jack76590]

I believe the past provides some guidance of what will happen in the future. Specifically, I believe most future banned items will be grandfathered. I also believe that "this too shall pass away". Our concern is to lead our lives and enjoy ourselves while waiting for the next roll of the political dice. Therefore, if there is still some "window" before 2008 I would urge you to put some priority on what you want to buy. I would not pay outrageous prices, but buy when the prices were good or decent and you have some spare cash. Then if bad things do not occur at least you got items you wanted at a decent price. Granted you may have waited if you knew availability would continue. This is what I have been doing over the past year or so. I got a Bushmaster, a second AK, a high cap glock and full capacity mags for them along with some full capacity mags for other firearms. And I stocked up on some ammo. Hard to buy enough ammo to last us thru say 6 years, but we can buy some ammo that may be banned and hopeful have the cash to buy the guns subject to potential ban we always wanted along with some mags.

[PA Rifleman]

Originally Posted by jack76590

...Therefore, if there is still some "window" before 2008 I would urge you to put some priority on what you want to buy. ...

Is there an echo in here?

http://www.pafoa.org/forum/rifles-42...html#post18529

Looks like we're on the same wavelength.

[billamj]

Considering that Caroly McCarthy of New York already has a bill written that would essentially reintroduce Brady with even more stringent definitions, I would not be surprised to see something symbolic by the end of the year. They know that there is virtually no chance of W signing anything like that however if the put it in as a rider on something else important enough that he has to sign it.... Well, you never know.

[exceltoexcel]

WOW! I don't have a doomsday prediction, I think it is far too risky for the democrats to even think about a AWB. On top of that I don't think hillary can win in 2008, I don't think the country is ready for woman and on top of that I think too many people flat out hate her guts. Her running will mean a republican win in 2008.